Cacao prices slide nearly 50%

 

It was only one year ago that cacao prices hit record highs hovering around 10,000 usd per metric tonne. One year later due to a surplus out of Africa, prices have slumped.

“Côte d’Ivoire officially opened its 2025–26 cocoa season on 1 October, announcing a farmgate price of 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram for well‑dried and properly sorted cocoa beans. 

At prevailing rates, the farmgate price converts to approximately USD 5.00 per kg, or USD 5,000 per metric ton, assuming an exchange rate near 1 USD = 559 CFA francs(the USD/XOF rate has been around 555–560 recently). 

Market & Stakeholder Response

• Surprise at the magnitude: The 2,800 CFA/kg figure significantly exceeds prior expectations and past levels. Some local press call it “historic.” 

• Smuggling concerns flare: Markets and trade analysts warn that the high Ivorian price may intensify cross-border leakage, particularly from Ghana and neighbouring producers, as traders chase the delta. 

• Pushback on consistency: Some earlier reports had projected a farmgate price of 2,500 CFA/kg (an increase of ~39 %) rather than 2,800. 

• Supply/demand dynamics under fresh stress: The announcement arrives just as global cocoa markets were already under pressure from improving supply expectations. The new floor price raises stakes for traders and origin governments in balancing flows and managing arbitrage. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a global cocoa surplus, which might bring some stability to prices but could pose challenges if demand continues to weaken.”