The Cacao report 11/24 - 28, 2025

 




English Translation



Executive Summary



Cocoa (November 24–28, 2025): The cocoa market closed the week with a strong corrective rebound, recovering nearly 9% from recent lows (closing: $5,550/t on ICE US), marking the first serious attempt at stabilization after the recent capitulation.



Technical Analysis: In the short term, the breakout above $5,300/t suggests an immediate bullish bias toward $5,700–$5,800/t, provided the key support zone of $5,000–$5,100/t holds.




Fundamentals and Equilibrium:


• Pressure (Short-Term): The narrative of easing supply for 2025/26 and weak grinding demand persists (Côte d'Ivoire grindings are down 25% year-on-year).




• Risk (Structural): Concern over long-term structural risks is mounting. A potential third consecutive drop in Côte d'Ivoire's main crop is anticipated due to underinvestment and aging plantations, compounded by a projected 11% drop in Nigeria's 2025/26 production.




Industry Conclusion: The market is no longer in panic mode but is establishing a new equilibrium range between $5,000 and $6,000/t with high volatility. The key takeaway is: those expecting a "return to pre-crisis normalcy" (> $2,500/t) will be penalized; the strategic focus must be on hedging discipline, cost optimization, and differentiation in traceability and sustainability.








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