Global Cocoa Markets Shaken as African Supply Returns in 2026

As of February 20, 2026, global cocoa prices are experiencing a significant downturn, hitting their lowest levels in over two and a half years. 

The market has shifted from a period of extreme scarcity to a projected supply glut, causing prices to plummet by roughly 45% since the beginning of the year.  

Current Market Prices (February 20, 2026)

• US Cocoa Futures (New York): Trading near $3,094 – $3,170 per metric ton. Prices hit a session low of $3,103 earlier today, continuing a six-week selloff.  

• London Cocoa Futures: Trading at approximately £2,154 per metric ton.  

• Farmgate/Local Prices: * Ghana: Recently cut its official producer price by nearly 30% (from Ghc 51,660 to Ghc 41,392 per tonne) to align with falling global values.  

• Cameroon (Douala): Buying prices are reported between 1,300 and 1,400 FCFA/KG.  

Market Sentiment & Trends

The "resurrection" of the African supply is the primary driver of this price collapse. 

After two seasons of deficits that saw prices spike above $10,000, several key factors have now reversed the trend:

• Projected Surplus: Analysts at StoneX and the ICCO are forecasting a global cocoa surplus of approximately 287,000 to 305,000 metric tons for the 2025/26 season.  

• Improved Weather: Favorable rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has significantly boosted pod counts, which are currently 7% above the five-year average.  

• Demand Destruction: High chocolate prices over the last year have caused a notable drop in consumption. Global cocoa grindings (a key demand indicator) have fallen to an estimated 4.60 million tonnes from 4.81 million in the previous cycle.  

• Inventory Build-up: ICE cocoa inventories recently rose to a five-month high as international buyers remain reluctant to purchase, expecting prices to drop even further.  

This market saturation is forcing major producing nations like Ghana to reduce payouts to farmers, while the Ivory Coast is reportedly considering similar adjustments to its guaranteed farmgate price before the main crop season ends in March.  

 Global Cocoa Markets Shaken as African Supply Returns in 2026

The global cocoa landscape has undergone a radical transformation this February 2026, as the "resurrection" of harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana shifts the market from record-breaking scarcity to a burgeoning surplus. 

After two years of unprecedented price surges, the robust recovery of West African fields is now driving international prices downward. 

In Ivory Coast, favorable rainfall has led to an unstoppable flow of beans to the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro, with analysts from StoneX and Rabobank projecting a global surplus exceeding 250,000 tons. 

Meanwhile, Ghana faces a bittersweet reality; despite rehabilitating thousands of hectares from the swollen shoot virus, the country is on the verge of being displaced by Ecuador as the world’s second-largest producer. 

This shift has forced Ghana’s Cocobod to implement drastic price reductions for local farmers to align with falling export revenues. 

The immediate impact is a sharp $120 USD drop per ton in local buying stations over the last 48 hours, leaving small-scale producers vulnerable as the market moves from record highs to aggressive bargaining. 

This volatility underscores the critical need for the agricultural sector to focus on the five pillars of the IMO GMC: 

Pillar I: SUPPLY SIDE, 

Pillar II: TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS, 

Pillar III: DEMAND SIDE, 

Pillar IV: TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION, 

and Pillar V: SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY & CERTIFICATION. 

This report is brought to you in conjunction with the IMO GMC, where we continue to analyze the evolving dynamics of global tropical agriculture. To join the discussion on the future of sustainable trade, please register for our upcoming sessions at the following link: IMO Global Mango Conference Registration.

Costa de Marfil y Ghana 2026: El retorno de la oferta africana sacude los precios mundiales

El panorama en los campos de África Occidental ha dado un vuelco radical este febrero de 2026, transformando la crisis de suministro en una realidad de abundancia que presiona los mercados a la baja. 

Costa de Marfil ha reportado una recuperación robusta gracias a lluvias favorables, superando las expectativas de exportación en los puertos de Abiyán y San Pedro, con proyecciones de un superávit global de más de 250,000 toneladas. 

En Ghana, aunque se han rehabilitado hectáreas afectadas por virus, el país lucha por mantener su puesto frente al avance de Ecuador. 

Esta saturación del mercado ha provocado una caída de $120 USD en el precio de compra directa en solo 48 horas, dejando a los productores en una posición vulnerable. 

Como parte de nuestro compromiso con la industria a través del IMO GMC, analizamos estos cambios bajo los pilares de la cadena de suministro y la responsabilidad social. 

Invitamos a todos los actores del sector a registrarse para nuestro próximo evento en Ponce, Puerto Rico, a través de este enlace: Registro Eventbrite IMO GMC.

Côte d'Ivoire et Ghana 2026 : Le retour de l'offre africaine secoue les prix mondiaux

En ce mois de février 2026, la « résurrection » des récoltes en Côte d'Ivoire et au Ghana a transformé l'espoir en une réalité qui pèse lourdement sur les cours mondiaux du cacao. La Côte d'Ivoire affiche une reprise robuste avec des flux de production vers les ports d'Abidjan et de San Pedro dépassant les prévisions, tandis que le Ghana tente de maintenir sa position face à la montée en puissance de l'Équateur. Ce surplus a entraîné une chute immédiate de 120 USD par tonne sur les marchés locaux, fragilisant les planteurs qui passent d'une période de prix records à une dépréciation brutale. Ces fluctuations rappellent l'importance des piliers de l'IMO GMC, notamment la logistique et l'innovation technologique pour stabiliser les revenus agricoles. 

Pour plus d'informations sur ces enjeux mondiaux, inscrivez-vous à notre conférence via Eventbrite : Lien d'inscription IMO GMC.

Costa do Marfim e Gana 2026: O retorno da oferta africana abala os preços mundiais

O cenário nos campos da África Ocidental mudou radicalmente em fevereiro de 2026, com a recuperação das colheitas na Costa do Marfim e no Gana pressionando os mercados internacionais. A Costa do Marfim projeta um superávit global de mais de 250.000 toneladas, enquanto o Gana enfrenta a concorrência crescente do Equador e ajustes drásticos nos preços pagos aos produtores. Nas últimas 48 horas, o preço caiu 120 dólares por tonelada nos centros de recolha locais, refletindo a rápida saturação do mercado. Este relatório destaca a relevância dos cinco pilares da IMO GMC para enfrentar a volatilidade dos preços agrícolas. Não perca a oportunidade de participar das discussões em Porto Rico; inscreva-se agora pelo Eventbrite: Inscrição IMO GMC.

Byline: Will Cavan, Publisher, Mango World Magazine

Byline: Will Cavan, Editor, Mango World Magazine

Byline: Will Cavan, Éditeur, Mango World Magazine

Byline: Will Cavan, Editor, Mango World Magazine

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