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Reporte de mercado del Cacao 24-28 de noviembre 2025

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  Resumen Ejecutivo Cacao (24 al 28 de noviembre 2025): El mercado del cacao cerró la semana con un fuerte rebote correctivo, recuperando cerca del 9% desde mínimos (cierre: 5.550 USD/t en ICE US), marcando un primer intento serio de estabilización tras la reciente capitulación. Análisis Técnico: A corto plazo, la ruptura de la resistencia de 5.300 USD/t sugiere un sesgo alcista inmediato hacia 5.700–5.800 USD/t , siempre y cuando se mantenga el soporte clave de 5.000–5.100 USD/t . Fundamentos y Equilibrio: • Presión (Corto Plazo): Persiste la narrativa de alivio de la oferta para 2025/26 y la debilidad de la demanda de molienda (grindings de Costa de Marfil -25% interanual). • Riesgo (Estructural): Crece la preocupación por los riesgos estructurales a largo plazo. Se anticipa una posible tercera caída consecutiva en la cosecha principal de Costa de Marfil por falta de inversión y envejecimiento de plantaciones, a lo que se suma una caída del 11% proyectada en la producció...
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The Cacao report 11/24 - 28, 2025

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  English Translation Executive Summary Cocoa (November 24–28, 2025): The cocoa market closed the week with a strong corrective rebound, recovering nearly 9% from recent lows (closing: $5,550/t on ICE US), marking the first serious attempt at stabilization after the recent capitulation. Technical Analysis: In the short term, the breakout above $5,300/t suggests an immediate bullish bias toward $5,700–$5,800/t , provided the key support zone of $5,000–$5,100/t holds. Fundamentals and Equilibrium: • Pressure (Short-Term): The narrative of easing supply for 2025/26 and weak grinding demand persists (Côte d'Ivoire grindings are down 25% year-on-year). • Risk (Structural): Concern over long-term structural risks is mounting. A potential third consecutive drop in Côte d'Ivoire's main crop is anticipated due to underinvestment and aging plantations, compounded by a projected 11% drop in Nigeria's 2025/26 production. Industry Conclusion: The market is no longe...
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Will “Chocolate” ever be the same ?

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THE IMPACT OF THE HAZELNUT CROP DECLINE IN ITALY

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Gianduja is in trouble. Gianduja is two things in the Italian chocolate world: 1. A Chocolate Confection: It is a sweet, smooth paste made from chocolate and at least 30% hazelnut paste (often combined with sugar). • It originated in Turin, Piedmont (a region famous for its hazelnuts) in the early 19th century. • The combination was an ingenious solution by local chocolatiers who were facing a shortage of cocoa due to a Napoleonic blockade, so they stretched their limited cocoa supply by mixing it with the abundant local hazelnuts. • Gianduja is used to make chocolate bars, creamy fillings for truffles, spreads (like the ancestor of Nutella), and the famous boat-shaped, individually-wrapped chocolates called Gianduiotti . 2. A Character: The confection is named after Gianduja (pronounced jan-DOO-yah), a cheerful, wine-loving peasant character from the Italian Commedia dell'Arte (a form of theater), who became the official carnival mask and symbol of Turin. Every time I’ve ent...
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